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Tesla, Rivian, and others see billions in revenue disappear as US officially end emission credits

electrek.co -- Friday, August 15, 2025, 11:56:58 AM Eastern Daylight Time
Categories: Presidential Campaigns
Tesla, Rivian, and others see billions in revenue disappear as US officially end emission credits

Tesla, Rivian, and other EV automakers in the US are seeing billions of dollars in revenue disappear as the US is officially ending the emission credit market.

As we previously reported, Trump's recently passed 'Big Beautiful Bill' is expected to have numerous impacts on the EV sector in the US.

The main one is the removal of the federal tax credit for the purchase of electric vehicles on September 30th.

Another change is the end of penalty enforcement for automakers with lower average fuel economy - aka those that produce more gas-guzzling vehicles and fewer electric vehicles.

This change is now already entirely in effect.

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has officially stopped issuing compliance letters to automakers for violating fuel economy standards. This eliminates the market for credits under the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standard.

Automakers that didn't comply with CAFE rules had to pay fines or purchase credits from other automakers that had a surplus, primarily those that only sell electric vehicles, such as Tesla, Rivian, and Lucid.

Those automakers would sell the credits for less than the fines, but now that the Trump administration has officially eliminated the penalties, it has officially killed the market for credits.

Many automakers had deals to purchase the credits, and following the passing of the 'Big Beautiful Bill', it wasn't clear if those deals would continue or if

The Zero Emission Transportation Association (ZETA), an EV trade group, filed a petition in the U.S. Court of Appeals to force NHTSA to resume issuing the letters.

In comments attached to the petition, Christopher Nevers, Rivian's director of public policy, stated that the company is unable to finalize its credit deals due to the NHTSA's decision to end the issuance of compliance letters, resulting in a loss of $100 million in revenue.

Rivian no longer expects any CAFE credit revenue this year.

A NHTSA spokesperson claimed that it will return to issuing compliance letters after a review of the CAFE standards (via investing.com):

"NHTSA is focusing on fixing CAFE standards to make cars more affordable again. When that process is complete, we will return to issuing compliance letters to manufacturers."

But there's significant doubt that this will happen under the Trump administration.

Ironically, the automaker most affected by this change is Tesla, whose CEO donated hundreds of millions to Trump's campaign.

Over the last four quarters, Tesla reported almost $2.5 billion in revenue from regulatory credits, which accounted for a significant portion of its net income during the period.

Those are global regulatory credit revenues, and the automaker doesn't disclose what part comes from the US, but it is estimated that as much as half comes from its US sales.

It's a sad day. This was a direct transfer of money from companies that contribute to deadly pollution to companies that try to reduce that pollution.

It was undeniably a good thing, and we are now already seeing automakers slow down their electric vehicle plans in the US.

Yesterday, I asked Honda executives what they think are the main reasons for the slow adoption of electric vehicles in the US, and their response was emphatic: "policies".

It's not just the actual policies, but the uncertainty and constant changes that make it hard to deploy a clear strategy.

In my opinion, EVs are the superior product, and automakers should strive to deliver the best product possible. However, corporations have different objectives, and I understand that these policy changes make it challenging to operate.

The result is that the US will fall further behind in electric vehicles while the world moves forward at full speed.

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Opinion:

The recent decision to end federal emission credits signals a major shift in the U.S. automotive policy landscape, one that is likely to have far-reaching consequences for the electric vehicle (EV) industry. The removal of these credits, which have served as a crucial financial lifeline for companies like Tesla and Rivian, is emblematic of a broader ideological struggle over environmental regulations and the future of sustainable transportation. This policy shift not only threatens the financial viability of these companies but also raises critical questions about our commitment to combating climate change and the political motivations behind such decisions.

Historically, the introduction of emission credits was part of a broader regulatory framework aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions and incentivizing cleaner technology. The Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards, established in the 1970s in response to the oil crisis, were intended to ensure that automakers produce vehicles that are not only fuel-efficient but also less damaging to the environment. By allowing manufacturers to buy and sell credits, the system created a market-driven approach to compliance, encouraging innovation and investment in the EV sector. The recent changes reflect a troubling trend toward deregulation that undermines decades of progress in environmental policy, echoing the broader rollback of regulations seen during the Trump administration.

The implications of this decision are profound, particularly as the world grapples with the urgent need to address climate change. The EV industry has been heralded as a key player in reducing carbon emissions and promoting sustainable practices. However, the dismantling of the regulatory framework supporting this transition risks stalling momentum at a time when investment in renewable energy and green technologies is more critical than ever. This shift also places the U.S. further behind other countries, especially those in Europe and Asia, which are doubling down on their commitments to electric mobility and sustainability. The end of emission credits could have reverberating effects not only on consumer choice and availability but also on global competitiveness in the burgeoning EV market.

Moreover, this policy decision disproportionately impacts communities and workers who have been at the forefront of the fight for climate justice. The transition to a clean economy is not merely an environmental issue; it is also a social justice issue. Many low-income communities and communities of color bear the brunt of pollution from traditional gas-powered vehicles. The removal of incentives for EVs could hinder efforts to provide affordable, cleaner transportation options to these communities, thereby exacerbating existing inequalities. This intersection of environmental and social justice emphasizes the need for a comprehensive approach that recognizes the rights and needs of marginalized populations in the push for a sustainable future.

The response from the EV industry and advocacy groups highlights the urgency of this moment. The Zero Emission Transportation Association's decision to petition the U.S. Court of Appeals is a crucial step in challenging the rollback of these important environmental standards. As the industry rallies to defend its interests, it is essential to remember that this fight is not just about corporate profits; it is about the future of our planet and the well-being of generations to come. Activists, consumers, and policymakers must unite to advocate for policies that prioritize sustainability and equity, pushing back against the deregulatory tide that threatens both the EV industry and our collective future.

In conclusion, the cessation of emission credits represents a critical juncture for the U.S. automotive industry and environmental policy. It is a stark reminder of the political battles that shape our approach to climate change and the urgent need for a unified response that champions both innovation and justice. As discussions surrounding the future of transportation evolve, it is imperative to elevate the voices advocating for a sustainable and equitable future, ensuring that the push for electric vehicles is not undermined by short-sighted policies that prioritize profits over the planet. In doing so, we can work toward a future that not only embraces clean technology but also actively dismantles the systemic barriers that have long hindered progress in environmental justice.

Action:

The recent decision to end emission credits, as detailed in the article, marks a significant shift in the landscape for electric vehicle (EV) manufacturers in the United States. Tesla, Rivian, and other companies that have invested heavily in clean technologies stand to lose billions as the federal government dismantles critical incentives that have helped accelerate the transition to a more sustainable automotive future. The ramifications of this policy change extend far beyond the bottom line of these companies; they underscore a troubling trend in our political landscape that prioritizes short-term gains for fossil fuel interests over long-term benefits for the environment and public health.

Historically, the emission credit system established under the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards was designed to encourage automakers to produce more fuel-efficient vehicles and invest in innovative technologies like electric powertrains. By allowing manufacturers that exceed fuel efficiency regulations to sell credits to those who do not, the system created a financial incentive for companies to transition away from gas-guzzlers. The recent dismantling of this system under the Trump administration is illustrative of a broader ideological battle over climate policy in the U.S. It reveals how political decisions can favor entrenched interests, in this case, the fossil fuel industry, while undermining efforts to combat climate change and protect the environment.

As citizens concerned about the implications of this policy shift, we must recognize the power of collective action and advocacy. Engaging in grassroots movements, supporting organizations that promote sustainable practices, and pressuring elected officials are vital steps we can take. We should advocate for a restoration of the emission credit system and push for expanded federal incentives for EV manufacturers and consumers alike. Furthermore, we can work to hold our representatives accountable to their constituents by demanding that they prioritize legislation that supports clean technologies and sustainable practices. By mobilizing in support of climate-friendly policies, we can push back against the regressive measures that threaten to reverse the progress we’ve made toward a cleaner environment.

Additionally, educating ourselves and others about the benefits of electric vehicles and renewable energy is crucial. This knowledge allows us to engage more effectively in discussions with those who may not yet see the importance of transitioning to sustainable practices. By highlighting the economic opportunities presented by the EV market—such as job creation in clean technology sectors—we can make a compelling case for the adoption of policies that support rather than inhibit the growth of this vital industry. Engaging with local communities, hosting informational sessions, and leveraging social media can amplify our efforts to change public perception and drive demand for cleaner alternatives.

Finally, we must confront the reality that the transition to a sustainable economy is not only an environmental imperative but also a matter of social justice. Historically marginalized communities often bear the brunt of pollution and climate change impacts, making the case for a just transition to a green economy even more urgent. Supporting initiatives that aim to make clean technologies accessible and affordable for all, particularly in these communities, should be a central focus of our advocacy efforts. By linking our environmental goals with social equity, we can build a broad coalition that challenges the outdated policies that prioritize profits over people and the planet.

In summary, the dismantling of the emission credit system represents a significant setback for the future of electric vehicles in the United States. As we navigate this challenging political landscape, it is essential to advocate for policies that support sustainable practices, educate ourselves and others about the importance of the transition to clean energy, and address the social justice implications of climate change. Through collective action and unwavering commitment, we can work toward a future that prioritizes the well-being of our environment and our communities, ensuring that the progress we have made in recent years is not undone.

To Do:

In response to the recent changes impacting the electric vehicle (EV) market due to the end of the emission credit system and the federal tax credit, there are several actions that concerned individuals can take to advocate for sustainable economic and environmental policies. Below is a detailed list of ideas and actions that can be implemented at a personal level:

### 1. **Sign Petitions and Support Advocacy Groups** - **Petitions**: Look for petitions that advocate for the reinstatement of the emission credit market and support for electric vehicles. Websites like Change.org and MoveOn.org often have ongoing petitions related to environmental issues. - **Example**: Support petitions created by the Zero Emission Transportation Association (ZETA) or other environmental advocacy groups. You can find these on their official websites or social media pages.

### 2. **Contact Elected Officials** Reach out to your local and federal representatives to express your concerns about the impact of the ending of the emission credits on both the economy and the environment.

- **Who to Write To**: - **Senator Joe Manchin** (Chair of Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee) - Email: senator@manchin.senate.gov - Phone: (202) 224-3954 - Mailing Address: 306 Hart Senate Office Building, Washington, D.C. 20510 - **Representative Frank Pallone** (Chair of the House Energy and Commerce Committee) - Email: pallone.house.gov/contact - Phone: (202) 225-4671 - Mailing Address: 237 Cannon House Office Building, Washington, D.C. 20515

- **What to Say**: - Express your concern regarding the recent policy changes and their detrimental effects on the EV market. - Urge them to advocate for the reinstatement of emission credits and support policies that promote clean energy and electric vehicles. - Mention that you believe robust support for EVs is crucial for fighting climate change and transitioning to a sustainable economy.

### 3. **Engage with Local Environmental Groups** - Join local environmental organizations or groups focused on sustainable transportation such as the Sierra Club or local chapters of Greenpeace. - Participate in meetings, workshops, and events to amplify your voice and connect with like-minded individuals.

### 4. **Promote Awareness in Your Community** - Organize or participate in community forums to discuss the importance of electric vehicles and sustainable policies. - Share information via social media about the impacts of the current policies on the EV market and broader climate issues. - Create an informative flyer and distribute it in your community centers or local coffee shops.

### 5. **Support EV Manufacturers and Sustainable Products** - Consider purchasing an electric vehicle or products from companies that prioritize sustainability. - Share your positive experiences with electric vehicles with friends, family, and on social media to encourage a shift towards greener choices.

### 6. **Contact the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA)** - Provide your feedback directly to the NHTSA regarding the importance of reinstating the compliance letters for automakers. - **Contact Information**: - Email: nhtsa.gov/contact - Phone: (888) 327-4236 - Mailing Address: 1200 New Jersey Avenue SE, Washington, D.C. 20590

- **What to Say**: - Stress the necessity of continuing compliance enforcement for fuel economy standards to promote the growth of the EV industry. - Highlight how this contributes to a sustainable future and aligns with public interest.

### 7. **Educate Yourself and Others** - Stay informed about the latest developments in environmental policy and electric vehicle technology. - Share knowledge through blogs, vlogs, or community workshops to raise awareness regarding the future of clean transportation.

By implementing these actions, individuals can contribute to a larger movement advocating for sustainable policies, supporting the electric vehicle industry, and addressing climate change effectively. Each of these steps fosters community engagement and pressures decision-makers to reconsider their policies in favor of a healthier planet.


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