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Dollar hands back some gains ahead of Trump-Putin summit By Investing.com

za.investing.com -- Friday, August 15, 2025, 4:28:25 AM Eastern Daylight Time
Categories: Foreign Policy & International Relations, Trade Policy & Tariffs, U.S.–Russia Relations
Dollar hands back some gains ahead of Trump-Putin summit By Investing.com

Investing.com - The U.S. dollar slipped back Friday, handing back some of the previous session's strong gains ahead of monthly retail sales data and a meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

At 04:15 ET (08:15 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.4% lower at 97.750, after sharp gains the prior session.

Repricing of Fed expectations

Trump and Putin are set to hold talks in Alaska later in the session to try and negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine - a conflict that has raged for over three years, and has severely disrupted the global supply chain, resulting in inflated commodity prices and a substantial hit to global growth.

"Trump has defined this as a 'feel-out' meeting and said there will likely be talks with European allies and Ukraine after this summit," said analysts at ING, in a note. "This suggests that while we could see some draft plan for a ceasefire tonight, markets may treat it with some caution."

"Trump has also said there is a "25%" chance nothing will be agreed today. That would be the most bullish scenario for the dollar, which could otherwise still come under a bit more pressure from geopolitical risk unwinding."

While the meeting in Alaska could be a turning point for the Ukraine conflict, it's unlikely to have the impact on the dollar that macroeconomic data has of late.

"After the PPI spike yesterday, there has been some hawkish repricing of Fed expectations, and the balance of risks for the dollar is now more balanced," added ING.

Bets on a 25-basis-point cut by the U.S. central bank in September remain very high, but the chance of a hefty 50 bps cut seems to have disappeared.

Traders will also keep an eye on the July retail sales release later in the session, looking for signs that the American consumer was starting to hold back on purchases.

Euro looks to Ukraine peace talks

In Europe, EUR/USD gained 0.3% to 1.1682, bouncing after falling around 0.5% in the previous session.

"The Trump-Putin meeting and any better clarity on the path ahead in the Ukraine conflict have longer-lasting implications for the euro than for the dollar," said ING.

That said, "the repricing in Fed cut expectations is hindering the chances of another major leg higher. The next U.S. data releases will determine whether a return to 1.180 is feasible in the near future."

GBP/USD traded 0.2% higher at 1.3556, after falling around 0.3% in the previous session.

Yen gains on solid GDP data

Elsewhere, USD/JPY traded 0.5% lower to 147.11, after data showed that Japan's economy expanded more than expected in the second quarter, as exports and capital spending remained resilient despite U.S. tariff pressures.

The stronger-than-expected outcome bolstered the case for the Bank of Japan to consider further tightening.

USD/CNY rose 0.1% to 7.1833, with the yuan slipping slightly after data showed that Chinese industrial production in July fell short of expectations as overseas demand waned following earlier front-loading due to U.S. tariffs.

Retail sales figures from the world's second-largest economy also came in below expectations in July amid weakness in consumer spending.

AUD/USD gained 0.4% to 0.6514, with the Aussie dollar bouncing after the previous session's losses.

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Opinion:

The recent meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska serves as a pivotal moment not just for international relations but also for understanding the broader economic implications tied to geopolitical events. As the U.S. dollar experienced fluctuations in response to this summit, it reflects the intricate relationship between political decisions and economic realities. The dollar's decline, following strong gains, underscores a critical aspect of financial markets: they are often susceptible to the outcomes of political maneuvering, especially in situations as fraught as the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. This meeting, while framed in diplomatic terms, can be viewed through the lens of historical struggles for power and influence, revealing deeper issues at play in global economics and politics.

Historically, U.S.-Russia relations have been tumultuous, marked by a series of conflicts, negotiations, and shifting alliances. The war in Ukraine, which has now persisted for over three years, is a manifestation of these broader historical tensions. The conflict has not only led to significant human suffering but has also disrupted global supply chains, causing inflation in commodity prices and stalling economic growth worldwide. This disruption emphasizes how wars are not merely isolated incidents but are deeply intertwined with global capitalism's structures. The economic ramifications of this conflict reverberate throughout markets, affecting not just the countries involved but also economies across the globe, particularly in Europe, which is directly impacted by the flow of goods and energy.

The potential outcomes of the Trump-Putin summit—whether it results in a ceasefire or continued hostilities—have profound implications for everyday people. The markets are betting on political resolutions that could stabilize the dollar, but such optimism is often misplaced. Analysts suggest that even if a ceasefire is tentatively agreed upon, the long-term stability of the region remains uncertain. This uncertainty reflects a broader theme in economic discourse: the disconnect between market optimism and the lived realities of individuals affected by conflict. The people of Ukraine continue to bear the brunt of these geopolitical games, highlighting a critical aspect of social justice that is often overlooked in high-level discussions. The focus should not solely be on currency values but on the human costs associated with these conflicts.

Furthermore, the economic policies of the U.S. Federal Reserve play a crucial role in shaping the financial landscape. The anticipation of a potential interest rate cut is indicative of a broader struggle within the U.S. economy, where inflationary pressures collide with the need for consumer spending. The plight of the average American consumer, who may be faced with rising prices, longer-term economic instability, and the threat of recession, underscores the importance of equitable economic policies that prioritize people over profit. As the Fed contemplates interest rates, the effects of such decisions ripple through the economy, impacting those who are already vulnerable and exacerbating existing inequalities.

In conclusion, the summit between Trump and Putin is not just a political event; it embodies the complex interplay between power, economics, and human lives. As the dollar fluctuates in response to these geopolitical dynamics, it serves as a reminder that financial markets are not isolated from the realities of society. The historical context of U.S.-Russia relations, the ongoing war in Ukraine, and the implications of Federal Reserve policies all converge to highlight the importance of a holistic understanding of economic systems. For advocates of social justice, this moment calls for a critical examination of how political decisions impact the everyday lives of people and the urgent need for policies that prioritize peace, equity, and sustainability over short-term gains.

Action:

The complex interplay of politics and economics is laid bare in the recent news surrounding the anticipated summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska. This geopolitical meeting is not just a moment of diplomatic significance, but it also underscores the intricate relationship between international relations and market dynamics. Over the past few years, the war in Ukraine has not only caused immense human suffering but has also led to significant disruptions in global supply chains, contributing to rising inflationary pressures that impact consumers worldwide. As the dollar fluctuates in response to these developments, it becomes clear that these economic indicators are deeply intertwined with political decisions that affect millions of lives.

Historically, the U.S. dollar has often served as a barometer for global stability. When geopolitical tensions rise, as they have with the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, the dollar can experience volatility based on investors' perceptions of risk. In this context, Trump's meeting with Putin is seen as a potential opportunity to negotiate peace, but the uncertainty surrounding the outcomes leaves investors wary. Analysts suggest that even if a ceasefire is discussed, the cautious skepticism of the markets reflects a broader disillusionment with political negotiations. This skepticism is not unfounded; previous engagements have often resulted in limited tangible progress, leading to a cycle of hope and disappointment that can further destabilize economic conditions.

As citizens and consumers, we must recognize the power of our collective voice in influencing both political and economic outcomes. While the actions of world leaders will undoubtedly shape the trajectory of conflicts like the one in Ukraine, grassroots activism remains a powerful tool for change. Engaging in dialogues about foreign policy, advocating for diplomatic solutions, and supporting initiatives that prioritize humanitarian assistance can all contribute to a more peaceful resolution. Furthermore, we can hold our representatives accountable by pushing for transparency regarding their engagement with foreign leaders, demanding policies that prioritize human rights and international cooperation over military interventions.

Educational institutions also play a crucial role in this dynamic. By fostering discussions around international relations, economics, and the impact of foreign policy on everyday lives, schools and universities can cultivate a more informed citizenry. Programs that encourage critical thinking about global issues can empower young people to engage in activism and advocacy, making them active participants in shaping policy. Additionally, community organizations can sponsor speaker series, workshops, and forums that bridge the gap between academic discourse and practical activism, ensuring that the next generation is equipped to tackle these complex challenges.

Ultimately, the path forward requires a concerted effort from all sectors of society. By staying informed about both the political climate and its economic ramifications, we can better understand how to navigate the uncertainties that lie ahead. Engaging in advocacy, supporting educational initiatives, and demanding accountability from our leaders are essential steps toward fostering a more just and equitable global landscape. As the dollar fluctuates in response to these pivotal discussions, let us remember that the real currency of change lies in our ability to unite and push for a more peaceful and prosperous future for all.

To Do:

In light of the recent developments highlighted in the article regarding the Trump-Putin summit and its implications for the Ukraine conflict, there are several actions individuals can take to contribute positively to these situations. Here is a detailed list of ideas and actions that can be pursued:

### Personal Actions:

1. **Educate Yourself and Others**: - Stay informed about the Ukraine conflict and its global implications. Share credible information with your community through social media or local groups.

2. **Advocate for Peace**: - Engage in conversations about the need for peaceful resolutions to conflicts. Participate in local discussions, forums, or online platforms focused on peace advocacy.

3. **Support Humanitarian Efforts**: - Contribute time or resources to organizations providing aid to those affected by the conflict in Ukraine. This could involve donating to reputable NGOs or volunteering at local shelters.

4. **Engage Politically**: - Write to your elected representatives expressing your views on the importance of diplomatic resolutions to the Ukraine conflict and the need for humanitarian support.

### Specific Actions:

1. **Petitions**: - **Petition for Peace**: Create or sign petitions that call for a ceasefire and increased humanitarian aid for Ukraine. Websites like Change.org can be useful for this. - Example Petition: "End the War in Ukraine and Support Humanitarian Aid".

2. **Contact Elected Officials**: - **Who to Write**: Contact members of Congress, particularly those on the Foreign Affairs Committee. - **Example Contacts**: - **House Foreign Affairs Committee**: - Chair: **Gregory Meeks** - Email: **meeks.house.gov** - Mailing Address: 2332 Rayburn House Office Building, Washington, DC 20515 - **Senate Foreign Relations Committee**: - Chair: **Bob Menendez** - Email: **menendez.senate.gov** - Mailing Address: 528 Hart Senate Office Building, Washington, DC 20510

3. **What to Say**: - In your correspondence, express your support for diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict and urge your representatives to prioritize humanitarian aid for affected civilians. Sample message: ``` Dear [Representative's Name],

I am writing to urge you to support diplomatic efforts for a peaceful resolution to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. It is essential that we prioritize humanitarian aid to the millions affected by this crisis. I believe that a strong stance for peace and support for civilians is crucial for our nation's moral leadership.

Thank you for your attention to this urgent matter.

Sincerely, [Your Name] ```

4. **Join or Form Advocacy Groups**: - Participate in or create local advocacy groups focused on peace and humanitarian issues. Collaborate on initiatives that raise awareness and funds for affected communities in Ukraine.

5. **Participate in Peaceful Demonstrations**: - Look for local marches or rallies advocating for peace in Ukraine and join in to show solidarity with those impacted by the conflict.

6. **Leverage Social Media**: - Use platforms like Twitter, Facebook, or Instagram to raise awareness about the Ukraine conflict, share information about humanitarian efforts, and encourage others to take action.

By taking these steps, individuals can contribute to meaningful dialogue and action around the Ukraine conflict and its broader implications, encouraging peaceful resolutions and support for those in need.


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